Minus 806 billion

"Rosneft" Igor Sechin, President even by results of 2012, said that his company has bypassed "Gazprom", becoming a leader in the amount of taxes paid. Then the head of gas concern Alexei Miller could still argue with that, but after the purchase in 2013, TNK-BP «Rosneft" has indeed become undisputed leader. Now, the situation may change.

According to the forecast of "Rosneft", with an average annual oil price of $ 51 per barrel and the course 63 rubles. per dollar in 2015, it will pay to the budget of about 2.2 trillion rubles. These figures are given in the working papers prepared for the July meeting Sechin, with President Vladimir Putin (RBC managed to read them). If the forecast is correct, the payment of "Rosneft" in comparison with the previous year reduced by almost 27%, or by 806 billion rubles. In 2014, "Rosneft" has paid in the form of export duties, excise duties, mineral extraction tax, income tax and other taxes 3.006 trillion rubles., Or almost 55% of its revenues, follows from the materials to the annual financial statements according to IFRS the company published on its website.

Interviewees RBC analysts of investment banks forecast confirm "RoOil. " Senior UBS analyst Maxim Moshkov estimated that in the same opening on the oil price and the ruble exchange rate in 2015, the state company will pay to the budget of 2.15 trillion rubles. Evaluation Alexei Kokin from Uralsib Capital - 2,28 trillion rubles. Outlook "Renaissance Capital" at the price of $ 60 per barrel and a course of 55 rubles. per US dollar - 2.6 trillion rubles. In the case of a decline in oil prices to $ 50 per barrel of income may fall to 2.2 trillion rubles., Says analyst Ildar Davletshin.

In the first quarter of 2015, "Rosneft" has paid in taxes and fees 616 000 000 000 rubles. - 16.5% compared with the same period in 2014 year.

Price and maneuver

Most of the budget will suffer from the collapsed oil prices. The average price of Urals oil in 2014 was $ 97.6 per barrel. In the first six months of 2015 it dropped to $ 57 a barrel, said Kokin. Only in the first quarter due to falling prices for oil payments "Rosneft" Taxes (other than income taxes) decreased year on year by 166 billion rubles, export duties -.. By 246 billion rubles, follows from the presentation to the company reporting under IFRS .

The exchange rate comparisonuw the first quarter of 2014 decreased from 35 to 62.2 rubles. per dollar. But devaluation is only partially compensated for the fall in prices. In the first quarter due to exchange rate differences "Rosneft" has increased taxes (other than income taxes) by 92 billion rubles, export duties -. 130 billion rubles.

Another factor that affects the company's payments - tax maneuver, which provides for the reduction of export duties while raising the severance tax. These payments in 2014 had more than 48% of the proceeds of "Rosneft". According to estimates of Kokin, in 2015 because of lower oil prices and changes in "Rosneft" payment of tax law on export duties will be reduced by 46% (from 1.68 trillion rubles. In 2014 to 909 billion). Expenses for MET in this case will grow only by 11% (from 982 billion to 1.1 trillion rubles.).

"Rosneft" representative declined to comment. Finance Ministry press service could not comment on what the proceeds of "Rosneft" laid down in the budget planning.

Who is bigger

Correspondence dispute between Alexey Miller and Igor Sechin about whose company pays more in KazakhWell, it erupted in 2013. Then, at the annual meeting of shareholders of "Rosneft" Sechin he said that "Rosneft" transferred to the budgets of all levels of 1.7 trillion rubles., Becoming the country's largest taxpayer.

After a few days at the annual "Gazprom" Miller told the meeting: "In 2012, the total amount of tax payments [gas company] 1.9 trillion rubles. Reference: "Rosneft" has paid to the budget of 1.7 trillion rubles, which means that "Gazprom" is the largest taxpayer in the country "(quoted by Interfax)..

At that time the opponents were neck and neck: judging by the statements, if clear payments of "Gazprom" for 2012 by insurance payments to non-budgetary funds (. 63.5 billion rubles), gas giant slightly inferior to "Rosneft". But in 2013, the state oil company has closed a deal to buy TNK-BP, and the debate about who is more meant for the country, for the time lost relevance.

In September 2013, at a meeting with Sechin, Dmitry Medvedev promised that "Rosneft" will pay back most of all taxes. And so it happened: in the year of its payments totaled nearly 2.5 trillion rubles. Fr.1.8 trillion rubles. from "Gazprom".

Topic tax superiority Sechin used more than once. In April 2013, he said that he considered unfair difference in the taxation of the oil and gas industries in Russia. "Gazprom" would like to wish good luck and success. This is a big company, the foundation of our economy, and [wish] to give more taxes to the budget ", - he said at the time. In the summer of the same year, as wrote "Vedomosti", in a report to the head of "Rosneft" estimates that reducing the tax burden for oil and 35% (for the gas sector) will lead to an even greater effect on the budget due to the action of the interbranch relations. In numbers, this effect is estimated at 6 trillion rubles.

The eternal rival

"Gazprom" in 2014 paid off in the form of taxes and charges 2.06 trillion rubles, and if you remove that amount of insurance payments to non-budgetary funds -.. 1.99 trillion rubles, follows from the statements of the gas concern. According to the forecast IFC Markets analyst Dmitry Lukashou, this year "Gazprom" payments in rubles could increase by 20-24%, that is up to 2.4-2.5 trillion rubles., Which is higher than the forecast of the payments & laquo; Rosneft ".

"Gazprom" may surpass "Rosneft" on tax payments, agrees analyst "Veles Capital" Basil Tanurcov. One of the main items of expenditure for "Gazprom" - is the export duty (in 2014 - 803.9 billion rubles.) And gas oil prices fall more slowly, like an expert. Due to the fact that the exchange rate falls faster in gas prices, tax payments of "Gazprom" this year may rise in ruble terms by 15-17%, portfolio manager agrees GL Financial Group Sergey Vakhrameev.

In the first quarter of the costs of "Gazprom" for the payment of customs duties increased yoy by 8.3% to 149.7 billion rubles, MET -.. By 17% to 180.8 billion rubles, follows from the Explanatory Notes to the Group financial statements.

Press-service of "Gazprom" has not responded to a request to RBC.

Forecast budget

In the budget for 2015 the government initially pledged an average oil price of $ 96 per barrel and the exchange rate - 37,7 rubles. per dollar. After adjusting the spring budget framework for the calculation have changed dramatically - it is now $ 50 per barrel and 61.5 rubles. per dollar.

Revenues byudETA in 2015 is now expected to reach 12.54 trillion rubles, including oil and gas -. 5.69 trillion rubles, ie, 45% of budget revenues.. For comparison: in 2014, revenues amounted to about 14.5 trillion rubles, of which 7.4 trillion rubles had on oil and gas sector..

For seven months of 2015, according to Ministry of Finance, the budget received a little less than 7.8 trillion rubles. income, of which about 3.5 trillion rubles. - Oil and gas. The budget deficit for January-July 2015 amounted to 1.12 trillion rubles., or 2.8% of GDP.