The broken plan of Igor Sechin

The attempt to "break through the sanctions blockade" and sell a large stake in Rosneft to respected Chinese investors has failed. CEFC Corporation postponed the deal for an indefinite period.
14.03.2018
Origin source
In December 2016 it became known that the state of Russia sold 19.5% of Rosneft shares at a price of 10.2 billion euros (692.4 billion rubles) to a consortium of respected foreign investors. It consisted of two structures: a trading Swiss company Glencore, which worked with the export of raw materials from the USSR, and the Qatar sovereign investment fund Qatar Investment Authority (QIA). The deal went some way lower, agreed by the government of the Russian Federation (10.5 billion euros), and so far this has not been explained.

The consortium of grateful buyers could not overtake such money (only 2.8 billion euros of their own), and therefore attracted third-party funding from Italian mafia bank Intesa Sanpaolo (5.2 billion euros) and Russian banks VTB, Gazprombank and RRDB (in fact, this is the bank of the "Rosneft" itself) in the amount of another 2.2 billion euros. The most feeble-minded and exalted observers in northern Eurasia (that is, the absolute majority) immediately howled with hyenas about "the transformation of Russia into Russia and the formation of a national elite." However, the international press estimated the deal very positively, attesting it as "the success of Vladimir Putin's policy":

Reuters notes that the preparation for the deal was carefully classified and for the first time it became known only on Wednesday evening. The agency also writes about the shattered expectations that the confrontation between the Kremlin and the West will scare off large investors from the deal. According to the agency, the attractiveness of a stake in one of the world's largest oil companies outweighed the risks associated with sanctions due to the conflict in Ukraine. Now foreign investors can reconsider the risks of transactions with Russia, especially since the election of Donald Trump as US president has strengthened hopes for a warming of bilateral relations.

A deal to sell "one of the crown jewels" will bring the Russian government so much money to him, writes The Wall Street Journal. "The sale of a stake in Rosneft will be a boon for Mr. Putin, whose country is under sanctions from the United States and the European Union because of military intervention in Ukraine," she said.

As was the case in the traditions of the High KGB era, a geopolitical operation carefully prepared in strictest secrecy was completed in April 2017 with a solemn ... awarding its participants with state orders! Know our:

The head of the Italian banking group Intesa Sanpaolo, Carlo Messina, the executive director of the Qatar Investment Autority Fund (QIA) and the member of the royal family of Qatar, Abdullah bin al-Thani, and the general director of the Swiss commodity trader Glencore International, Ivan Glazenberg, were awarded "for their great contribution to strengthening cooperation with the Russian Federation ". All three businessmen were awarded the President of the Order of Friendship.

By September 2017 the following facts were revealed:

- Glencore and QIA are not actually final investors and want to reduce most of the stake in Rosneft, especially since they need to return bank loans;

- The Chinese private corporation CEFC (China Energy Company Limited), which is ready to pay 9.1 billion dollars (8.6 billion euros) for these securities, was named the probable buyer of 14.16% of Rosneft shares.

The scheme looks good for the "laying guys": they keep a small stake in Rosneft at 5.34%, pay off debts to Russian banks and Intesa Sanpaolo (7.4 billion euros) in full, and put another 1 , 2 billion euros from the Chinese. Plus, as already mentioned above, high state awards from Uncle Putin as a useless, but pleasant cherry on the cake (you can hang them up with your favorite dog, for example). And in order for the transaction to take place quickly, the Russian state bank VTB announced its readiness to provide the CEFC with a loan for 2 years in the amount of 5.1 billion euros. In fact, the Chinese on the way to the cherished stake in Rosneft minimized all risks.

But when it's too good, it turns out badly. Moreover, if it is "good" to offer you "stubborn guys." Earlier this year, rumors began to multiply, that the deal could be rescheduled. Finally, on March 13, information was received from the Chinese rating agency (China Chengxin International Credit Rating) that the purchase of a 14.16% stake in Rosneft was postponed indefinitely. Translated into a language accessible to the layman, it means its failure. How to evaluate it?

If unvarnished, then this is the real financial-hydrocarbon waterloo regime of "gas managers" in northern Eurasia. Firstly, it became clear that no one in the world has large share holdings of one of the largest Russian companies (second-third in terms of capitalization after Sberbank and approximately at the same level as Gazprom) are not needed. Secondly, this means the collapse of any hopes at all about a more or less serious economic alliance with the Celestial Empire. China invests in Russia as much as it sees fit, and in terms of level of interest, northern Eurasia takes its place at the very end of the second dozen countries. The Chinese refused to participate in the semi-criminal schematism with the cut of the "bubble".

Third, of course, this is a blow to the reputation of Rosneft. In general, the "reputation" for Russian business and the "gop-state" is a little abstract thing. But it brings its practical fruits, whether Igor Sechin wants it or not. So, with the Russian state company, large foreign partners like Italian Eni (suspended a joint project in the Black Sea) or its strategic "ally" ExxonMobil, which is withdrawing from joint projects for the extraction of hydrocarbons in the Arctic and the Black Sea, are gradually abandoning their cooperation. Yes, of course, sanctions played their part.

But you had to think with your head: if you have all the modern oil and gas service and offshore production tied to Western companies, then why should some Crimean climb into a trap of insulting sanctions? Especially, for the sake of what? For the sake of seizing the territories on the shelf of the Black Sea? Well, right now, the "Crimean", and already as if the Russian "Chernomorneftegaz" was forbidden to extract gas at the bottom of the Black Sea near the Crimea. This is not to mention the fact that the financial state of Rosneft, if not yet an awful, it makes you think. The company's total debt in mid-2017 amounted to more than $ 58 billion (net debt - $ 37.5 billion) with annual revenues of $ 78 billion and net profit of $ 2.8 billion in 2016. On the other hand, who will think, even if the resident of the Russian Federation on the blue eye reports that he follows the instructions of anonymous overseas supervisors and is not in a position to control his own spokesman, "nonsense"?

It seems that everything goes to the fact that the shares of Rosneft from the consortium Glencore and QIA will have to be redeemed (or directly paid off with creditor banks) at the expense of the state budget. Or to pile up a new geopolitical "help" with the presentation of awards in the Kremlin.

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