The loss of Rosgosstrakh for the first half of 2017 was 23.6 billion rubles, according to IFRS, and in the first half of 2016 it was 8.7 billion rubles.

Rosgosstrakh is trying to reduce its presence in the unprofitable MTPL market, but it does not manage to close the gap between payments and fees for this type of insurance: in the first half of 2017 it amounted to 14.3 billion rubles, and in the same period in 2016 - 9 billion rubles., That is, almost 1.5 times less.

 Due to compulsory motor TPL insurance in 2016, Rosgosstrakh received a net loss under IFRS of 33 billion rubles, negative operating cash flow then reached 54 billion rubles. The company continues to reduce its share in this market, says Alexei Bredikhin, an analyst with ACRA. In June 2017, Rosgosstrakh lost first place to the list of the largest auto insurers, it was surpassed by VSK and RESO-Guarantee.

According to the Russian Union of Motor Insurers, in 2016 the share of Rosgosstrakh in the MTPL market decreased from 35 to 20.4%, and in May 2017 - to 16.8%. "This is associated with a reduction in premiums," Bredikhin said, in the second quarter they amounted to 22.4 billion rubles, and in the first quarter was 30 billion; Payments fell from 39.6 billion to 36.7 billion rubles.

The growth in loss ratio is natural in the situation of Rosgosstrakh: the company is trying to reduce the MTPL portfolio, premiums are being reduced, and payments under the previous agreements are continuing, the managing director of Expert RA, Alexei Yanin, agrees: "With such a strategy, the loss will remain until the end of the year." The loss of OSAGO increases every year by several percent, says Bredikhin, most likely, it will continue to grow and in 2017.

"The loss of Rosgosstrakh in 2017 will be more than in 2016," says Tatyana Nikitina, head of the insurance ratings department of the NRA, "but it's unclear how much." In her opinion, not only Rosgosstrakh, but the whole market was in a suspended situation: the OSAGO insurers now have to repair cars, and not to pay insurance compensation. "Companies are waiting for the loss from compulsory motor third party liability insurance to decrease, but this is not yet appreciable," Nikitin sums up.

Insurance - inertial business: an unprofitable contract concluded today, the company can settle for another 2-3 years, explains the general director of the insurance company Yugoria Alexey Okhlopkov: "The loss that Rosgosstrakh showed in 2016 may grow at least 2 more, 5-3 times. "

Because of this, the insurer will have to replenish the capital, Okhlopkov is sure, according to his calculations, Rosgosstrakh will need to add at least 75 billion rubles. - taking into account already announced 40 billion rubles., Which the insurer in 2017 received from the "Discovery", when the holding expressed its intention to buy it. With this assessment, Bredikhin agrees.

 "This is at best - with the professional work of the team, the right management decisions. If there are mistakes, the company's losses in the next couple of years can reach 100-150 billion rubles, "Okhlopkov believes.

"We do not comment on the calculations of our colleagues," says a representative of Rosgosstrakh, "but the estimate is incorrect. Moreover, the reduction in the share of the MTPL market undoubtedly has a positive effect on losses, they will decrease in absolute terms, although the MTPL insurance will remain unprofitable. "

On Tuesday, the Central Bank announced that the bank FC Opening will transfer to the Consolidation Fund and that Rosgosstrakh is a member of the bank group. The Central Bank does not yet have a mechanism for rehabilitating insurers. The representative of the Central Bank declined to comment.

According to the Russian Union of Motor Insurers, in 2016 the share of Rosgosstrakh in the MTPL market decreased from 35 to 20.4%, and in May 2017 - to 16.8%.