The loss of ground armored vehicles, which should have opened the way for Russian infantry to Ukrainian cities and villages, has exceeded 10,000 units. At this rate of losses, Russia may lose the ability to provide the fighting army with the necessary amount of equipment in about a year.

Since the beginning of the war, Russia has lost 10,037 units of armored vehicles of all types, according to the Oryx website, which keeps track of documented losses. Among them:

3,376 tanks, including 159 of the most modern T-90 tanks of various modifications,
More than 5,000 infantry fighting vehicles and airborne troops, as well as armored personnel carriers,
and more than 1,500 armored vehicles of other types, including transport, reconnaissance, anti-mine, etc.
The losses of ground armored vehicles are so great that 85% of tanks and armored vehicles arriving at the front are restored and refurbished old Soviet equipment, estimate the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

“To maintain the pace of offensive operations in Ukraine, the Russian military relies heavily on restored stocks of Soviet weapons and equipment, especially armored vehicles,” experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note in their latest report. But Soviet stockpiles are running out, and it is unclear whether the military-industrial complex, even with the further mobilization of the economy that will clearly be necessary, will be able to produce enough to replace the equipment lost by the army, ISW adds. “Russia is likely to face increasing problems in producing and procuring the materiel needed to conduct operations in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is likely to increasingly rely on foreign partners to meet these needs,” the report says.

According to Alexander Golts, an analyst at the Stockholm Center for East European Studies, and Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian armed forces and a visiting fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, at the current rate of losses, the capacity to repair tanks and infantry fighting vehicles taken from stockpiles will be exhausted in about a year, by the second half of 2025.

Russia will try to win Ukraine before the beginning of 2026, Kirill Budanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, said over the weekend. According to him, the Kremlin considers 2025 to be decisive, since by mid-year Russia expects the economic and socio-political situation to worsen, as well as serious difficulties in recruiting people into the army. This will significantly reduce its ability to conduct military operations in Ukraine.

The total losses of all types of Russian military equipment, including aircraft, more than a third of the Black Sea Fleet ships, missile systems, etc., which less than a year and a half ago exceeded 10,000, are already approaching two tens of thousands. According to Oryx, they currently amount to 17,856 units. The Ukrainian army has lost 6,551 units of equipment.