The main investor of the project to create the coal port of Lavna in Murmansk will be the co-owner of the UMMC holding Andrei Bokarev. Its final share in the project may be 75%, FAS has already given permission for the deal. Also, the State Transport Logistics Company (STLC) will participate in the concession. It is planned to invest 24 billion rubles in the terminal, in addition, about 20 billion rubles. gives the budget for the railway and dredging. Experts and sources of “Kommersant” note that the main issues remain the high-quality raw material base and the prospects for a fall in demand for coal in Europe.
On October 1, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ordered a concession agreement on the construction of the Lavna coal terminal and infrastructure in Murmansk. Rosmorrechflot will become the concessor, who will send the concession project to the Lavna Sea Trade Port LLC (MHPP) within five days. The term of signing the agreement is no more than a month.
Lavna is a key element of the project of the Murmansk transport hub, the terminal capacity is 18 million tons per year, the cost is 24 billion rubles. The launch of the first stage (9 million tons) is scheduled for the end of 2020, the project will reach full capacity in a year. Also, a private investor should invest 0.9 billion rubles. in access railway lines, the railway itself (18 billion rubles) is built at the expense of the budget, as is dredging and navigation support systems (1.8 billion rubles). The Russian Railways OJSC told “Kommersant” that they are correcting the parameters of the project for the development of approaches to the ports of the North-West of the Russian Federation for synchronization with the concession.
According to the sources of Kommersant, Andrei Bokarev, the co-owner of the UMMC, should become a private investor of the IHTP.
The project for it is not new: until November 2016, the IHRP was controlled by Cyprus-based Stonven Finance Limited, which is associated with UMMC Kuzbassrazrezugl (KRU). According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, now we are talking about Mr. Bokarev’s structures, and not UMMC’s, negotiations resumed after the Swiss trader Mercuria, having agreed with STLC about the long-term loading of Lavna (6–12 million tons of coal per year), refused the role strategic investor.
In the UMMC declined to comment, contact with Andrei Bokarev failed. In the State Treasury Committee the fact of negotiations with the businessman was confirmed to “Kommersant”: “Corporate procedures for reviewing the transaction are being conducted, FAS approval has already been received” (the service did not comment). It is assumed that the investor acquires 70%, 5% remained with Mr. Bokarev, specify in the company, without naming the price. In STLC they say that the investor will conclude a take-or-pay agreement on the conditions necessary for the project payback.
One of the sources of "Kommersant" explained that the main idea of the entry of Andrei Bokarev - the projected shortage of port coal capacity with the growth of exports.
The Ministry of Energy expects growth in coal production in the Russian Federation to 560 million tons by 2025 from 420–425 million tons in 2018. But, the interlocutor of “Kommersant” notes, the following questions remain: the decline in demand for coal in Europe and the quality raw material base for Lavna. By 2022, the switchgear capacity is planned to increase by 12% to 52 million tons, but the company exports coal through the Vostochny port in Primorye and Rosterminalugol in Ust-Luga (both are part of the UPC holding affiliate with the switchgear).
Maxim Khudalov from ACRA believes that small Kuzbass producers, the assets of Dmitry Bosov and partners, the Kazakh coal miners, could export coal through Lavna. At current prices, coal from Lavna can be transported to the Asia-Pacific region, but as soon as it becomes cheaper in response to the growth of world production, the main focus will be the Atlantic market, where demand is declining, the expert says. The head of Infoline-Analitics, Mikhail Burmistrov, believes that without a strategic partner, the cargo owner, government investments in the railway would be indestructible and inappropriate.