"I saw myself, felt with my hands - now there is construction in the country of three cheese factories, capacity 50-60-70 tons per day, in five years we generally will forget this problem [the shortage of Russian cheeses]! - not so long ago, the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev shared his iridescent plans.
- Let's remember pork, vegetable oil, sugar, vegetables, fruit! We, too, imported it to the country, we were very serious. " Tkachev and his colleagues are not tired of telling how the food embargo helped Russian farmers: greenhouses are being built, orchards are being laid, and so on.

But in the dairy industry, import substitution did not happen: milk production is declining, dairy products are becoming more expensive, and demand for them is falling. Why is this happening?

Long investments

While Russia provides itself with dairy products only 75%, the rest - imports, mainly from Belarus. However, Russia always did not have enough raw milk. But the situation is getting worse. According to the industry union - Soyuzmolok, the production of raw milk from 2006 to 2016 decreased by 2% to 30.7 million tons.

This is a complex and costly business, says a representative of one of the dairy companies. The production of vegetables pays off for 7-8 years, fruits - for 4-5 years. And dairy complexes pay off much longer. According to different estimates, this takes 10-15 years. Many investors are scared of such figures - they need serious investments for a long time, says Vedomosti's interlocutor.

Indeed, the dairy business is considered difficult due to high payback periods, says the owner of the largest milk producer in Russia - "Econivs" Stefan Duerr. The standard construction period of the dairy complex before commissioning is three years. Also, dairy production requires substantial working capital: cows begin to give milk only for the third year of life. You have to prepare your own feed, and for this you need land - an average of about 3 hectares per cow, says Durr. Pig breeders and poultry farmers are much easier - they can buy ready-made food.

Raw milk for the past four years has risen in price by about 60% to 25 rubles. for 1 kg, said the executive director of Soyuzmolok Artem Belov. This happened after the devaluation and increased demand from processors. At the same time, the prime cost after the strengthening of the ruble began to decline. This makes dairy farming more attractive for investors, Belov is sure. Important, in his opinion, and state support: compensation of capital costs in 2017 increased from 20 to 30%, and soft loans are granted at a rate of up to 5%.

Investors doubt

But investors still doubt. For example, the main owner of Rusagro, Vadim Moshkovich, recently announced that he is ready to invest $ 1 billion in the production of milk and dairy products. But the decision on the project has not been made yet, says the representative of the agricultural holding. "Dairy cattle breeding is really a difficult business and with a long payback, even taking into account subsidies. No matter how we consider the discounted model of payback, seven years, which are spoken about in the press, we never get out, "he growls. That the project became viable, processing and manufacture of products with the added cost is necessary. Therefore, complete vertical integration is necessary - from feed to production of dairy products, he points out.

Other investors could talk about possible investments in mega projects in the dairy industry: 20 billion rubles. promised to invest the minority shareholder of "Magnit" Alexei Bogachev in partnership with Rusagro, $ 400 million - Miratorg, $ 1 billion - the Thai CP Group. In fact, only the large-scale new raw milk production was launched by the Vietnamese TH Group. The company started building dairy complexes in the Kaluga and Moscow regions last year for a total of about 40,000 animals, and recently announced plans to build farms in Primorye. Her investments in the next 10 years will be $ 2.7 billion.

If the situation on the market does not change and milk prices do not go down, it will be possible to fully meet the country's need for milk after 10 years, Belov predicts. While the problem of lack of milk processors decide in different ways. For example, the founder of the Russian Parmesan cheese company Oleg Sirota will soon introduce his own dairy farm. And the French Danone, in turn, to ensure a stable supply of milk, invested in its production in the Tyumen region together with the Damate group Naum Babaev. In total, the project cost 5.6 billion rubles., Danone's investments are not disclosed. According to the agreement of the parties, all the milk received at this plant is sent to the Danone plant for eight years.

The effect of the embargo

"We saw that a European producer with a lower price will not come tomorrow, and we realized that we can build long-term plans that we need to invest in our own production," Interfax quoted the owner of the company for the production of pickled cheeses "Umalat" Alexei Martynenko. Almost on the day of the declaration of the embargo, he ceased to engage in the operational management of the feed production business and began to actively develop Umalat. "I realized that if nothing is changed right now, then we can oversleep the opportunity for the company's development," he noted.

Many businessmen decided to tackle cheese just after the imposition of the embargo, among other things, banning the importation of cheeses from Europe to Russia. In 2016 "Umalat", according to Nielsen, became the largest producer of suluguni, the third in the production of mozzarella and mascarpone. Since 2014, the production of "Umalat" has doubled to 5000 tons, says Rustem Mustafin, marketing director of the company. "The import substitution program and the imposition of embargoes were by the way, without them we would grow, but the growth would probably be less significant," he continues. However, the effect of the embargo has exhausted itself very quickly, since the incomes of the population began to decrease substantially, Mustafin said.

Consume a little

On the day a person needs to eat at least three dairy products: 80% of the daily intake of calcium can be provided - it is most easily absorbed from dairy products, according to Soyuzmolok. The Union is supported by the Federal Research Center for Nutrition and Biotechnology and the Russian Association for Osteoporosis. The Ministry of Health recommends consuming not less than 325 kg of dairy products per year per person. But these figures are far away: in 2016 only 233 kg per capita came out. However, the top manager of one of the agricultural holdings believes that such allegations have guile. In the Soviet years there was a shortage of meat, so as a source of protein, mainly consumed dairy products. And now the situation has changed: in Russia there is enough pork and poultry of own production at an affordable price. Therefore, there are so many dairy products, as before, just do not need it, he explains.

The orphan launched cheese production in the summer of 2015. Now it produces semi-solid and hard cheeses, which in retail trade cost from 800 to 1600 rubles. for 1 kg. The first parmesan on the cheese factory will mature in August, when the embargo will be fulfilled for four years. Now Sirota produces 400 kg of cheese per day, in 2018 it is planned to reach 2 tons.

Most of Russian manufacturers have succeeded in producing hard and semi-hard cheeses, such as Russian, Dutch, Altaic, says the representative of the ABC of Taste, Andrei Golubkov. Also there are quality manufacturers of brie cheese, camembert, mozzarella, burrata. But on the basis of solid, seasoned cheeses, the offer of good quality is still limited - in the main, the network now sells hard cheese from Switzerland, which is not covered by sanctions, and from the countries of South America, says Golubkov. In the money for expensive Russian cheeses account for about 10% of all sales and about 5% in physical terms, Belov said.

However, if the embargo is lifted, many businessmen engaged in the production of milk and cheese will be ruined, Sirota said. "Even if we can compete in quality, we will not be able to compete in price. The cost of milk in Germany is now about 20 rubles. And we have 34 rubles. "- says Sirota. Milk in Germany costs less because of cheap loans and state subsidies. In Russia, short and expensive loans - they are given for 5-7 years. Investors do not have time to start production, but money has to be returned. It is necessary to extend the term of loans to 12-15 years, as in Europe, says Sirota. Also for production is not enough quality milk. For 1 kg of cheese you need up to 14 kg of milk, and milk is required for the highest grade to provide the desired quality of cheese. But Umalat is not afraid of lifting sanctions, says Mustafin: the company actively develops brands, found its consumer, and the quality of cheeses turned out even better than their imported counterparts.

From milk to pasta

Meanwhile, consumption of dairy products is reduced, according to Nielsen, from September 2016 to September 2017 by almost 5%. The biggest drop in sales of kefir - by 8.4%, sterilized milk - by 7%, yoghurts - by 5.8%, cottage cheese - by 5%. For the first time in recent years, there has been a drop in consumption of traditional dairy products such as milk, sour cream, cottage cheese, curd and ryazhenka, notes Anastasia Jafarova, director of customer relations at the sales and service department of consumer panels GfK Rus. Perhaps the main reason is an increase in the average price by 10.4%, Jafarova explains.

The rise in prices is primarily due to the rise in price of raw materials, i.e. milk from farmers, says the representative of PepsiCo. In addition, the representative of Danone leads and other reasons: the tariff system "Plato" for heavy vehicles in April increased by 25%, and tariffs for energy - more than 8%. Demand for dairy products is also declining due to a decline in household incomes over the past few years, Belov believes.

The fact that people began to save even on regular milk, says that they are likely to switch to cheaper products, said Marina Balabanova, regional vice president for corporate relations of Danone in Russia and the CIS. It can be pasta, cereals or some other products, she argues. Russians, as never before, are rational in their spending and try to redistribute them as efficiently as possible, says Jafarova, this testifies to the relative adaptation of Russians to a protracted crisis.

Tkachev also acknowledged that import substitution in the dairy industry did not happen. He wrote about this in response to a request of the State Duma deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Valery Rashkin. With a decrease in imports from 1.9 million tons in 2013, milk production grew by only 1.4 million tons. The demand for import of dairy products is now 7.5 million tons, the minister wrote. Full replacement will take at least 9-10 years at a production growth rate of 3% per year. But now work is under way to increase state support, which will reduce this period to 5-6 years, Tkachev hopes.


  
Consume a little

On the day a person needs to eat at least three dairy products: 80% of the daily intake of calcium can be provided - it is most easily absorbed from dairy products, according to Soyuzmolok. The Union is supported by the Federal Research Center for Nutrition and Biotechnology and the Russian Association for Osteoporosis. The Ministry of Health recommends consuming not less than 325 kg of dairy products per year per person. But these figures are far away: in 2016 only 233 kg per capita came out. However, the top manager of one of the agricultural holdings believes that such allegations have guile. In the Soviet years there was a shortage of meat, so as a source of protein, mainly consumed dairy products. And now the situation has changed: in Russia there is enough pork and poultry of own production at an affordable price. Therefore, there are so many dairy products, as before, just do not need it, he explains.