The Italian banking group Unicredit has announced a strategy for winding down its business in the Russian Federation - Unicredit Bank - by the end of 2025. In general, the plans to reduce the presence of the Italians are very close to the previously announced tasks of another European group, Raiffeisen, in relation to its Russian subsidiary Raiffeisenbank. Experts consider the published tasks feasible, but are confident that their goal is to stay in Russia as long as possible with minimal risk of claims from European regulators in order to wait for times of peace.

Unicredit Group presented a strategy for winding down the business of its Russian subsidiary, Unicredit Bank (one of the systemically important credit institutions, SZKO) by the end of 2025. As part of the strategy to reduce Russian business next year, Unicredit Group plans to reduce the cross-border risk to Russia to zero, as well as significantly reduce the loan portfolio and deposits, follows from the group’s presentation (.pdf). In 2025, cross-border risk should be reduced by 100% compared to 2022, almost to zero, international transfers by more than 66%, to €8.5 billion, deposits by more than 75%, to €2 billion, credit portfolio - by more than 85%, up to €1 billion.

The group has been reducing its presence in the country for several years. According to reports, for the period from the first quarter of 2022 to the end of the second quarter of 2024, its cross-border risk to Russia decreased by 93%, to €300 million, international transfers - by 56%, to €11.2 billion, deposits - by 69% , to €2.6 billion, and the loan portfolio - by 68%, to €2.3 billion.

Unicredit's net profit in Russia in the first half of the year increased by 21.3% compared to the same period last year and amounted to €329 million, according to its reporting.

Another European group, Raffeisen, whose Russian banking subsidiary Raiffeisenbank is also one of the Russian Federation's SZKOs, is also curtailing its business in Russia. In April, the ECB demanded that Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) accelerate the reduction in activity in Russia, which the group has been implementing since February 2022. The ECB demands a reduction of the RBI's loan portfolio in the Russian Federation by 65% ​​by 2026. RBI said in a report in May that it was seeking to achieve deconsolidation of the Russian unit, including through its sale.

Nevertheless, like Unicredit Bank, Raiffeisenbank remains a profitable asset for the group. Its IFRS statements for the first half of the year are not yet available, however, according to Russian standards, Raiffeisenbank’s net profit for the first half of 2024 is 71.25 billion rubles. against 58.27 billion rubles. for the same period last year.

According to experts, plans to wind down the business of Russian banking subsidiaries by the largest European groups look realistic, but are not aimed at leaving their country - this is an attempt to gain time.

“Both banks really don’t want to leave Russia and are delaying their departure in every possible way, hoping that peaceful initiatives will soon lead to the end of the active stage of hostilities and a change in the foreign policy situation of the Russian Federation,” believes Dmitry Kurbatsky, managing partner of the Dmitry Donskoy Financial Group. — The plans that we see on paper now are plans to please European regulators. But even in them we are not talking about a complete shutdown of the business. They provide for maintaining a sufficient volume of both the loan portfolio and the deposit base.”

Obviously, both banks plan to work and continue to earn money in Russia, otherwise it would be possible to wind down the business much more quickly - within a year it would be possible to sell the loan portfolio and actively engage in winding down the balance sheet, which in fact does not happen.