Russia has less than 30 years of oil left

The oil prosperity that Russia has been living in since the middle of the last century, selling “black gold” abroad and buying technology and consumer goods in exchange, is approaching its end at an alarming rate.
21.05.2025
Origin source
The explored oil reserves in the Russian Federation will only last for 26 years of production, the head of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Alexander Kozlov, said at the government hour in the State Duma on Wednesday.

According to Kozlov, quoted by RIA Novosti, the total oil reserves in Russia are estimated at 31 billion tons. However, only a third of them are profitable — 13 billion tons. Currently, oil companies pump about 500 million tons of oil out of the ground every year.

In addition to the explored reserves, there are 95 billion tons of “oil resources” on the territory of Russia, Kozlov said. “But the peculiarity is that a significant part of them are hard to extract,” the minister specified.

According to the Energy Strategy until 2050, which was approved by the government in April, oil production in the country may begin to fall rapidly in the coming years. In the inertial scenario, from the current 530-540 million tons per year, it will decrease to 477 million tons by 2036, and by 2050 to 287 million tons. Oil exports will have to be reduced by three times - from 234 to 79 million tons per year.

In the "stress scenario", which includes increased Western sanctions and the world's accelerated rejection of hydrocarbons, by 2050 Russia will produce only 171 million tons of oil annually - three times less than now. And there will be no barrels left for export: its volume will drop to zero.

In order to at least maintain the current level of oil production (the "target scenario"), the country requires significant investment, as well as achieving "technological sovereignty", the strategy says. In total, according to the document, it is necessary to “replace” more than 1,500 items of “critically necessary equipment”.

Currently, according to estimates by the Ministry of Natural Resources, the share of imported drilling equipment, as well as analytical software for mining in the country, exceeds 90%. In addition, 50% of mining machines used by mining companies and 30% of ground geophysical equipment remain imported. Slightly less dependence on imports is on equipment for technological research of ores (20%) and geophysical equipment for well research (10%).