Ukraine is attacking Russian refineries and oil depots — the Rostov fire could not be extinguished for almost three weeks. How much damage was caused? Few of Forbes' interlocutors dared to discuss this topic under their own names, but we tried to recreate the overall picture. It turned out that less gasoline is being produced, but there are no prerequisites for a sharp rise in prices yet.
There is practically no detailed information in open Russian sources about the damage caused to oil refineries by attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). According to BBC calculations (the site is blocked in Russia), since the beginning of the year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have attacked refineries and oil infrastructure in Russia at least 64 times. "In recent months, drones have increasingly hit oil facilities in the southern regions of the country," the publication notes.
In total, since the beginning of this year, Russian refineries and oil depots have been attacked by UAVs at least 60 times, agrees Nikolai Vavilov, a specialist in the strategic research department at Total Research. Reuters counted 13 attacks on Russian oil infrastructure in June-August. At the end of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that more than 30 Russian refineries, terminals and oil depots had been attacked, but did not say over what period of time this happened.
Of the most notable incidents related to Russian oil infrastructure in recent times, three stand out. First, the fire that occurred on August 26 at the largest oil refinery in Russia in Omsk. Second, the drone attack on August 18 on fuel warehouses belonging to Rosrezerv in the city of Proletarsk in the Rostov region - they could not be extinguished for more than two weeks. The area of the fire, extinguished only on September 2, reached 10,000 square meters. Third, damage to the Moscow oil refinery.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, on the night of September 1, air defense forces repelled one of the most massive attacks by Ukrainian drones, as a result of which 158 drones were destroyed and intercepted over 15 regions, including Moscow. At the same time, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported on his Telegram channel that one of the drones damaged a separate technical room of the Moscow Oil Refinery. The fire was localized, there is no threat to people or the operation of the plant, Sobyanin wrote. However, Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that the Euro+ unit with a capacity of 6 million tons per year was damaged at the Moscow Oil Refinery.
The incidents with the Omsk and Moscow refineries are causing moderate concerns on the market, Nikita Blokhin, a senior analyst at Alfa Bank, told Forbes. The Euro+ complex unit accounts for half of the Moscow refinery's oil refining capacity. However, Blokhin believes that the moderate nature of the damage allows us to expect that the lost production volumes could return to the market in a few weeks.
“At the same time, market participants have virtually no information regarding the prospects for restoring the operation of the previously damaged AVT-11 primary oil refining unit at the Omsk refinery,” Blokhin says. “The company's press service reported that this incident will not affect the production program, and the refining plan will be fulfilled due to additional refining capacity. These reports could calm the mood on the stock exchange, which, in our opinion, will help contain the growth of fuel prices in the short term.” Blokhin declined to comment further.
Five hundred oil depots
The geographical spread of the strikes adds to the uncertainty. According to the impact of drone attacks on production volumes, oil companies can be divided into three groups, Kirill Bakhtin, a senior analyst at the Sinara investment bank, told Forbes in the spring. The first group is Lukoil and Rosneft, whose refineries have been hit by drone strikes. The second group includes Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft, whose enterprises are located in areas where such attacks could occur or have already been attempted. The third group includes Tatneft and Bashneft, with plants that are geographically remote from the areas where the incidents were recorded.
But in May, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan, located 1,400 km from the border with Ukraine, was attacked, and a month later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a distance of 1,500 km was not a problem for Ukrainian drones. The Omsk Oil Refinery that caught fire in August is located 2,500 km from the border. There have been media reports that Kyiv has drones capable of covering such distances, and that the drone could have been launched from the territory of another state or even from Russia.
It is extremely difficult to effectively protect the perimeter of facilities located over a large area for objective reasons, says Vavilov from Total Research. “There are about 500 oil depots in our country,” the expert explains. “They are divided into several categories: small with a storage capacity of up to 10,000 cubic meters of oil products, medium from 10,000 to 50,000 cubic meters, and large - over 50,000 cubic meters. The total number of large oil depots in the country is just under 20. Such a strategic facility with all the accompanying infrastructure occupies an area of approximately 153,000 square meters. For comparison, the area of a standard football field is 7,140 square meters. m. This means that a large oil depot occupies an area of approximately 22 football fields. Medium-sized oil depots occupy an area approximately half as large, but there are hundreds of such facilities in the country. The main goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on Russian oil depots is the following: by increasing the number of drone strikes, to force the Russian Armed Forces to remove special military equipment for detecting UAVs from the front and, together with anti-aircraft missile systems, redeploy them to protect the country's oil infrastructure." Other fuel market experts contacted by Forbes either declined to comment or agreed to provide their comments on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the topic.
The attacks are likely to have a dual purpose: to complicate fuel supplies to the Russian Armed Forces and to create tension on the domestic gasoline market, one expert, who wished to remain anonymous, told Forbes. “The issue of rising gasoline prices has always been sensitive for the population, and their excessive growth could be a cause for discontent,” the expert explains. “At the same time, in recent months, oil depots have suffered the most, which may be due to both increased security at refineries and the fact that the Ukrainian side wants to focus on damaging supplies.” According to the Devon news agency, there are 30 large refineries and about 80 mini-refineries in Russia.
“The drone attacks do not pursue any specific goal or adhere to a specific strategy,” says another expert, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Most likely, we are talking about attempts to inflict maximum damage, given the available means, to facilities involved in the production and sale of fuel on the market and located near the border. This indirectly confirms that UAV flights deep into the country remain quite scattered. Therefore, it is difficult to say that there is any clear trend in these attacks that could have a direct impact on the fuel market. If the strategy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces does not change, drone attacks will not significantly affect the dynamics of prices on the exchange."
The expert also notes that in the last few months, raids have been carried out primarily on oil depots, and not on oil refineries. Since such attacks are aimed at the fuel fund and state reserves of not only civilian but also military purposes, it is quite difficult to assess their real effect on the fuel market, says the Forbes source.
Less gasoline
Drone attacks on oil infrastructure have not yet had a serious impact on the fuel market, although they have caused local disruptions, said a third expert, who also wished to remain anonymous. Official data is classified; According to his calculations, the volume of gasoline production in January-July 2024 remained virtually unchanged compared to the same period last year. The expert recalls that in the summer months, demand for gasoline is traditionally at its peak, which is supported by scheduled maintenance work carried out during this period at many oil refineries. At the same time, the expert says, as of August 21, gasoline reserves amounted to 2.05 million tons, which corresponds to the 2023 level. In addition, he recalls, the government extended the embargo on gasoline exports until the end of the year as an additional measure to saturate the domestic market.
The government imposed a ban on gasoline exports from March 1 to August 31 to "maintain a stable situation on the fuel market during the period of increased demand associated with spring field work, the holiday season, and scheduled maintenance of oil refineries." The ban was lifted for the period from May 20 to June 30, and then the permit for gasoline exports was extended for another month - until the end of July. No decisions were made for August and, accordingly, the ban for this month was automatically reinstated. Then the ban was extended until the end of the year.
Prices for AI-95 gasoline on September 3 on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) were 72,207 rubles per ton, down from a peak of 74,818 rubles on August 22. But prices for AI-92 gasoline on September 3 were at 60,007 rubles per ton, up 10% from a low of 54,477 rubles on August 7. The historical record for the cost of AI-95 on the exchange was set on September 7, 2023 - then the price reached 76,876 rubles per ton. The price record for AI-92 is 70,508 rubles per ton, it was reached on September 18 last year.
According to Rosstat, the average price of AI-92 gasoline at Russian gas stations on August 26 was 53.20 rubles per liter, up 5.8% since December 2023, and for AI-95 - 58.39 rubles per liter, up 6.3% since the end of last year. According to the same Rosstat, inflation from the beginning of the year to August 26 was 5.19%.
Rosstat cites data indicating that the growth of prices at gas stations exceeded the inflation rate, but this, according to the third expert, is due to the fact that retail prices lagged behind wholesale prices for too long.
So far, the scale of damage to the Russian oil refining industry looks manageable, says the first expert. According to him, wholesale prices for gasoline are currently at high, although normal by historical standards, levels due to seasonal increased demand. And the growth of wholesale prices has also led to a rise in retail prices above the level of general inflation, the expert notes.
The fact that even with the current export ban, wholesale prices have only stabilized indicates that the volume of gasoline production is still reduced, the first expert adds. Since the end of May, weekly statistics on fuel production have been closed, he reminds. "In mid-May, gasoline production was 12% lower than in the first week of January. Now, judging by indirect data on the volume of export of diesel fuel and other petroleum products and wholesale prices for fuel, we believe that gasoline production may still be lower than in January, but already by about 3%. Oil refining volumes are being restored due to the completion of repairs at a number of refineries," the expert says.
There is practically no detailed information in open Russian sources about the damage caused to oil refineries by attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). According to BBC calculations (the site is blocked in Russia), since the beginning of the year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have attacked refineries and oil infrastructure in Russia at least 64 times. "In recent months, drones have increasingly hit oil facilities in the southern regions of the country," the publication notes.
In total, since the beginning of this year, Russian refineries and oil depots have been attacked by UAVs at least 60 times, agrees Nikolai Vavilov, a specialist in the strategic research department at Total Research. Reuters counted 13 attacks on Russian oil infrastructure in June-August. At the end of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that more than 30 Russian refineries, terminals and oil depots had been attacked, but did not say over what period of time this happened.
Of the most notable incidents related to Russian oil infrastructure in recent times, three stand out. First, the fire that occurred on August 26 at the largest oil refinery in Russia in Omsk. Second, the drone attack on August 18 on fuel warehouses belonging to Rosrezerv in the city of Proletarsk in the Rostov region - they could not be extinguished for more than two weeks. The area of the fire, extinguished only on September 2, reached 10,000 square meters. Third, damage to the Moscow oil refinery.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, on the night of September 1, air defense forces repelled one of the most massive attacks by Ukrainian drones, as a result of which 158 drones were destroyed and intercepted over 15 regions, including Moscow. At the same time, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported on his Telegram channel that one of the drones damaged a separate technical room of the Moscow Oil Refinery. The fire was localized, there is no threat to people or the operation of the plant, Sobyanin wrote. However, Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that the Euro+ unit with a capacity of 6 million tons per year was damaged at the Moscow Oil Refinery.
The incidents with the Omsk and Moscow refineries are causing moderate concerns on the market, Nikita Blokhin, a senior analyst at Alfa Bank, told Forbes. The Euro+ complex unit accounts for half of the Moscow refinery's oil refining capacity. However, Blokhin believes that the moderate nature of the damage allows us to expect that the lost production volumes could return to the market in a few weeks.
“At the same time, market participants have virtually no information regarding the prospects for restoring the operation of the previously damaged AVT-11 primary oil refining unit at the Omsk refinery,” Blokhin says. “The company's press service reported that this incident will not affect the production program, and the refining plan will be fulfilled due to additional refining capacity. These reports could calm the mood on the stock exchange, which, in our opinion, will help contain the growth of fuel prices in the short term.” Blokhin declined to comment further.
Five hundred oil depots
The geographical spread of the strikes adds to the uncertainty. According to the impact of drone attacks on production volumes, oil companies can be divided into three groups, Kirill Bakhtin, a senior analyst at the Sinara investment bank, told Forbes in the spring. The first group is Lukoil and Rosneft, whose refineries have been hit by drone strikes. The second group includes Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft, whose enterprises are located in areas where such attacks could occur or have already been attempted. The third group includes Tatneft and Bashneft, with plants that are geographically remote from the areas where the incidents were recorded.
But in May, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan, located 1,400 km from the border with Ukraine, was attacked, and a month later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a distance of 1,500 km was not a problem for Ukrainian drones. The Omsk Oil Refinery that caught fire in August is located 2,500 km from the border. There have been media reports that Kyiv has drones capable of covering such distances, and that the drone could have been launched from the territory of another state or even from Russia.
It is extremely difficult to effectively protect the perimeter of facilities located over a large area for objective reasons, says Vavilov from Total Research. “There are about 500 oil depots in our country,” the expert explains. “They are divided into several categories: small with a storage capacity of up to 10,000 cubic meters of oil products, medium from 10,000 to 50,000 cubic meters, and large - over 50,000 cubic meters. The total number of large oil depots in the country is just under 20. Such a strategic facility with all the accompanying infrastructure occupies an area of approximately 153,000 square meters. For comparison, the area of a standard football field is 7,140 square meters. m. This means that a large oil depot occupies an area of approximately 22 football fields. Medium-sized oil depots occupy an area approximately half as large, but there are hundreds of such facilities in the country. The main goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on Russian oil depots is the following: by increasing the number of drone strikes, to force the Russian Armed Forces to remove special military equipment for detecting UAVs from the front and, together with anti-aircraft missile systems, redeploy them to protect the country's oil infrastructure." Other fuel market experts contacted by Forbes either declined to comment or agreed to provide their comments on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the topic.
The attacks are likely to have a dual purpose: to complicate fuel supplies to the Russian Armed Forces and to create tension on the domestic gasoline market, one expert, who wished to remain anonymous, told Forbes. “The issue of rising gasoline prices has always been sensitive for the population, and their excessive growth could be a cause for discontent,” the expert explains. “At the same time, in recent months, oil depots have suffered the most, which may be due to both increased security at refineries and the fact that the Ukrainian side wants to focus on damaging supplies.” According to the Devon news agency, there are 30 large refineries and about 80 mini-refineries in Russia.
“The drone attacks do not pursue any specific goal or adhere to a specific strategy,” says another expert, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Most likely, we are talking about attempts to inflict maximum damage, given the available means, to facilities involved in the production and sale of fuel on the market and located near the border. This indirectly confirms that UAV flights deep into the country remain quite scattered. Therefore, it is difficult to say that there is any clear trend in these attacks that could have a direct impact on the fuel market. If the strategy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces does not change, drone attacks will not significantly affect the dynamics of prices on the exchange."
The expert also notes that in the last few months, raids have been carried out primarily on oil depots, and not on oil refineries. Since such attacks are aimed at the fuel fund and state reserves of not only civilian but also military purposes, it is quite difficult to assess their real effect on the fuel market, says the Forbes source.
Less gasoline
Drone attacks on oil infrastructure have not yet had a serious impact on the fuel market, although they have caused local disruptions, said a third expert, who also wished to remain anonymous. Official data is classified; According to his calculations, the volume of gasoline production in January-July 2024 remained virtually unchanged compared to the same period last year. The expert recalls that in the summer months, demand for gasoline is traditionally at its peak, which is supported by scheduled maintenance work carried out during this period at many oil refineries. At the same time, the expert says, as of August 21, gasoline reserves amounted to 2.05 million tons, which corresponds to the 2023 level. In addition, he recalls, the government extended the embargo on gasoline exports until the end of the year as an additional measure to saturate the domestic market.
The government imposed a ban on gasoline exports from March 1 to August 31 to "maintain a stable situation on the fuel market during the period of increased demand associated with spring field work, the holiday season, and scheduled maintenance of oil refineries." The ban was lifted for the period from May 20 to June 30, and then the permit for gasoline exports was extended for another month - until the end of July. No decisions were made for August and, accordingly, the ban for this month was automatically reinstated. Then the ban was extended until the end of the year.
Prices for AI-95 gasoline on September 3 on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) were 72,207 rubles per ton, down from a peak of 74,818 rubles on August 22. But prices for AI-92 gasoline on September 3 were at 60,007 rubles per ton, up 10% from a low of 54,477 rubles on August 7. The historical record for the cost of AI-95 on the exchange was set on September 7, 2023 - then the price reached 76,876 rubles per ton. The price record for AI-92 is 70,508 rubles per ton, it was reached on September 18 last year.
According to Rosstat, the average price of AI-92 gasoline at Russian gas stations on August 26 was 53.20 rubles per liter, up 5.8% since December 2023, and for AI-95 - 58.39 rubles per liter, up 6.3% since the end of last year. According to the same Rosstat, inflation from the beginning of the year to August 26 was 5.19%.
Rosstat cites data indicating that the growth of prices at gas stations exceeded the inflation rate, but this, according to the third expert, is due to the fact that retail prices lagged behind wholesale prices for too long.
So far, the scale of damage to the Russian oil refining industry looks manageable, says the first expert. According to him, wholesale prices for gasoline are currently at high, although normal by historical standards, levels due to seasonal increased demand. And the growth of wholesale prices has also led to a rise in retail prices above the level of general inflation, the expert notes.
The fact that even with the current export ban, wholesale prices have only stabilized indicates that the volume of gasoline production is still reduced, the first expert adds. Since the end of May, weekly statistics on fuel production have been closed, he reminds. "In mid-May, gasoline production was 12% lower than in the first week of January. Now, judging by indirect data on the volume of export of diesel fuel and other petroleum products and wholesale prices for fuel, we believe that gasoline production may still be lower than in January, but already by about 3%. Oil refining volumes are being restored due to the completion of repairs at a number of refineries," the expert says.
