Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes deep in the Russian rear increasingly target not only military-industrial complexes and oil infrastructure, but also mineral fertilizer plants. These attacks have a significant impact on the industry, acknowledged Andrey Melnichenko, founder of EuroChem, one of Russia's largest fertilizer producers, in April. Russia is also a major player in the global fertilizer market.
What is Russia's role in the global fertilizer market?
Russia is the world's leading exporter of mineral fertilizers. Last year, it accounted for 19% of all shipments in volume terms (increasing to 45 million tons), according to the Russian Fertilizer Producers Association (RFPA). Exports amounted to approximately $15 billion in monetary terms, representing 3.6% of Russia's total exports.
In terms of production volume (65.5 million tons), Russia ranked second after China. Thus, 69% of fertilizer production was exported.
In the first quarter of 2026, due to rising global prices, exports increased year-on-year by 16%, reaching $3.6 billion. However, the physical volume of shipments decreased. A year ago, Metals & Mining Intelligence estimated it at 11.9 million tonnes; by the end of the first quarter of 2026, Agroexport reports 9.6 million.
Since the end of 2021, Russia has had fertilizer export quotas in place, and the government regularly extends them. The quotas were introduced due to rising global natural gas prices, which began even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas is an important component in fertilizer production, especially nitrogen fertilizers (up to 80% of the cost).
It has become much more profitable for Russian producers to sell fertilizers abroad than on the domestic market. To prevent shortages and rising prices for fertilizers within the country (which would inevitably lead to higher food prices), the government introduced export quotas. The main drawback of quotas for producers is the inability to quickly increase them when domestic demand is met and surpluses arise, Forbes reported.
Producers raised the issue of abolishing quotas, but achieved nothing. They were helped to accept the restrictions by another surge in global prices—due to the crisis in the Middle East, export restrictions in China, and increased demand in India. Currently, Russian plants are almost fully utilized, says Andrey Guryev, a beneficiary of PhosAgro, one of the market leaders, and head of the Russian Fertilizer Producers Association.
Last year, Brazil, India, and China were the main buyers of Russian fertilizers, accounting for almost half of all exports. The US and Europe remain important markets, accounting for 22% between them.
How have sanctions affected Russian fertilizer producers?
Russian fertilizer producers have suffered significantly less from Western sanctions than some others. For example, the United States lifted restrictions back in March 2022, classifying Russian fertilizers as essential goods.
In the first year of the war, the European Union imposed sanctions against the owners and executives of major Russian producers—Akron, Eurochem, Uralkali, Uralchem, and PhosAgro. Most of them relinquished control of their companies or resigned. As a result, hundreds of thousands of tons of Russian fertilizers were blocked in European ports, and the Baltic countries completely closed their ports, which served as key supply routes to Europe.
The closure of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline played a significant role in the outbreak of the war. This was the main conduit for pumping ammonia (the main raw material for nitrogen fertilizers) to its main Russian producer and exporter, the Togliattiazot plant. On February 24, 2022, the company announced the suspension of ammonia transit and plans to develop alternative routes. These plans failed to materialize, and Ukraine opposed the resumption of supplies. The Russian Ministry of Defense twice accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of sabotaging the ammonia pipeline, once in the Kharkiv and once in the Donetsk regions.
In 2023, Russia attempted to tie the reopening of the ammonia pipeline to the resumption of the grain deal—an agreement on the unimpeded export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea. Agreements on both ammonia supplies and the grain deal were unsuccessful. Ukraine found the deal unnecessary, as the Russian Navy could no longer impede grain transportation due to the threat of Ukrainian naval drones.
To replace the Togliatti-Odesa pipeline, Togliattiazot began construction in Taman, Russia's first terminal for transshipping ammonia onto seagoing vessels. The first phase of the terminal was originally planned for launch in late 2023, but this has not yet happened. The Ministry of Transport now expects it to launch in 2026.
In 2022, due to all these problems, Russian fertilizer production and exports declined. However, thanks to rising global prices, exporters' revenues increased by 70%, according to the Financial Times. Since 2023, both production and exports in volume terms have begun to grow again in Russia. Manufacturers are developing Russian ports on the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas, as well as rail transportation.
As for the European Union, it reduced its imports of Russian fertilizers in 2022 and 2023, but they have begun to increase again since 2024. The EU has begun to discuss the threat to food security due to dependence on Russian supplies and has imposed additional duties on nitrogen and complex fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. Europeans chose these types of fertilizers because natural gas, which is cheap for Russian producers, accounts for a particularly large share of their production costs. Since July 1 of last year, the rate has been €40-45 per ton; by 2028, it is expected to reach a prohibitive level of €315-430. According to the European Commission, the average price per ton of nitrogen fertilizers was €519 in March.
These measures have already had an effect. According to the European Commission, in the first quarter of 2026, imports of all fertilizers from Russia decreased year-on-year by almost 70%, to 597,000 tons. At the same time, Russian exports to the United States are growing. Americans partially supply their own market with Russian products and sell their own fertilizers to Europe, thus offsetting the decline in Russian exports to the EU, Forbes explained.
How effective are Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes?
Ukrainian missiles and drones can certainly cause significant damage to fertilizer production facilities and disable them for long periods. This is evident in the strike on the Dorogobuzh plant in the Smolensk region—to date, it is likely the most successful attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a company in the industry.
The strike on Dorogobuzh took place on February 25 of this year, killing seven people and injuring 11. Two of the victims were rescue workers who were poisoned by ammonia, ASTRA reported. According to the Ukrainian OSINT project, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the plant with FP-1 drones. Specifically, ammonium nitrate production facilities and a railway terminal were damaged. "There was such a wave, such a roar, everything shook, and we really thought it was an earthquake. Then the windows literally blew in." "There's not just a fire at the site of the plant, but a huge bonfire," a Dorogobuzh resident said.
The plant has been shut down since then. The governor of the Smolensk region promised to restore ammonia production by May and nitrate by the end of June.
Dorogobuzh accounts for approximately 10% of Russian ammonium nitrate production. Russia's share of global ammonium nitrate exports is even greater than the industry average—up to 40%. Although Dorogobuzh is focused on the domestic market, on March 21, the government imposed a month-long ban on ammonium nitrate exports. No extension was announced. According to Kommersant, the value of monthly exports could have exceeded $100 million; in volume terms, shipments in the first quarter plummeted 40% year-on-year. The Smolensk region's budget will lose 500 million rubles just due to the loss of tax revenues from Dorogobuzh, the governor said.
In addition to Dorogobuzh, in recent months, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have targeted Togliattiazot, Kuibyshevazot, and Minudobreniya in the Voronezh region, Acron in Veliky Novgorod, Nevinnomyssk Azot in Stavropol Krai, Apatit in the Vologda region, and the Kirovo-Chepetsk Chemical Company in the Kirov region.
For Ukraine, the targeting of fertilizer production is not only a reduction in Russian export revenues. Ammonia, for example, is used, among other things, to produce gunpowder, explosives, and solid rocket fuel. Robert Brovdi, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Unmanned Systems Forces, reporting on the strike on a plant in the Vologda Region, emphasized that its products are used to produce TNT, RDX, and other explosives.
There is another way fertilizer producers are assisting the Russian military-industrial complex. Taking advantage of the fact that these enterprises are not subject to Western sanctions, military factories are ordering chemicals needed for explosives production through them, Bloomberg reported.
Experts are not yet concerned that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes will seriously impact the global fertilizer market. Therefore, they are more concerned about Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a third of all fertilizers transported by sea are shipped. Furthermore, up to 30% of the liquefied natural gas used in fertilizer production is shipped through Hormuz.
The disruption of fertilizer supplies and rising prices will impact agricultural producers worldwide—in Africa, Asia, and Brazil. Ultimately, all of this will lead to higher food prices; the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is already recording food inflation. The FAO doesn't expect a sharp rise in prices: recent good harvests in Asia and the United States, as well as large food reserves, are helping to alleviate the situation.
The Kiel Institute for International Economics warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause wheat prices to rise by 4.2%, and fruit and vegetable prices by 5.2%. Zambia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Pakistan will be hit hardest by rising food prices.
What is Russia's role in the global fertilizer market?
Russia is the world's leading exporter of mineral fertilizers. Last year, it accounted for 19% of all shipments in volume terms (increasing to 45 million tons), according to the Russian Fertilizer Producers Association (RFPA). Exports amounted to approximately $15 billion in monetary terms, representing 3.6% of Russia's total exports.
In terms of production volume (65.5 million tons), Russia ranked second after China. Thus, 69% of fertilizer production was exported.
In the first quarter of 2026, due to rising global prices, exports increased year-on-year by 16%, reaching $3.6 billion. However, the physical volume of shipments decreased. A year ago, Metals & Mining Intelligence estimated it at 11.9 million tonnes; by the end of the first quarter of 2026, Agroexport reports 9.6 million.
Since the end of 2021, Russia has had fertilizer export quotas in place, and the government regularly extends them. The quotas were introduced due to rising global natural gas prices, which began even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas is an important component in fertilizer production, especially nitrogen fertilizers (up to 80% of the cost).
It has become much more profitable for Russian producers to sell fertilizers abroad than on the domestic market. To prevent shortages and rising prices for fertilizers within the country (which would inevitably lead to higher food prices), the government introduced export quotas. The main drawback of quotas for producers is the inability to quickly increase them when domestic demand is met and surpluses arise, Forbes reported.
Producers raised the issue of abolishing quotas, but achieved nothing. They were helped to accept the restrictions by another surge in global prices—due to the crisis in the Middle East, export restrictions in China, and increased demand in India. Currently, Russian plants are almost fully utilized, says Andrey Guryev, a beneficiary of PhosAgro, one of the market leaders, and head of the Russian Fertilizer Producers Association.
Last year, Brazil, India, and China were the main buyers of Russian fertilizers, accounting for almost half of all exports. The US and Europe remain important markets, accounting for 22% between them.
How have sanctions affected Russian fertilizer producers?
Russian fertilizer producers have suffered significantly less from Western sanctions than some others. For example, the United States lifted restrictions back in March 2022, classifying Russian fertilizers as essential goods.
In the first year of the war, the European Union imposed sanctions against the owners and executives of major Russian producers—Akron, Eurochem, Uralkali, Uralchem, and PhosAgro. Most of them relinquished control of their companies or resigned. As a result, hundreds of thousands of tons of Russian fertilizers were blocked in European ports, and the Baltic countries completely closed their ports, which served as key supply routes to Europe.
The closure of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline played a significant role in the outbreak of the war. This was the main conduit for pumping ammonia (the main raw material for nitrogen fertilizers) to its main Russian producer and exporter, the Togliattiazot plant. On February 24, 2022, the company announced the suspension of ammonia transit and plans to develop alternative routes. These plans failed to materialize, and Ukraine opposed the resumption of supplies. The Russian Ministry of Defense twice accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of sabotaging the ammonia pipeline, once in the Kharkiv and once in the Donetsk regions.
In 2023, Russia attempted to tie the reopening of the ammonia pipeline to the resumption of the grain deal—an agreement on the unimpeded export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea. Agreements on both ammonia supplies and the grain deal were unsuccessful. Ukraine found the deal unnecessary, as the Russian Navy could no longer impede grain transportation due to the threat of Ukrainian naval drones.
To replace the Togliatti-Odesa pipeline, Togliattiazot began construction in Taman, Russia's first terminal for transshipping ammonia onto seagoing vessels. The first phase of the terminal was originally planned for launch in late 2023, but this has not yet happened. The Ministry of Transport now expects it to launch in 2026.
In 2022, due to all these problems, Russian fertilizer production and exports declined. However, thanks to rising global prices, exporters' revenues increased by 70%, according to the Financial Times. Since 2023, both production and exports in volume terms have begun to grow again in Russia. Manufacturers are developing Russian ports on the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas, as well as rail transportation.
As for the European Union, it reduced its imports of Russian fertilizers in 2022 and 2023, but they have begun to increase again since 2024. The EU has begun to discuss the threat to food security due to dependence on Russian supplies and has imposed additional duties on nitrogen and complex fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. Europeans chose these types of fertilizers because natural gas, which is cheap for Russian producers, accounts for a particularly large share of their production costs. Since July 1 of last year, the rate has been €40-45 per ton; by 2028, it is expected to reach a prohibitive level of €315-430. According to the European Commission, the average price per ton of nitrogen fertilizers was €519 in March.
These measures have already had an effect. According to the European Commission, in the first quarter of 2026, imports of all fertilizers from Russia decreased year-on-year by almost 70%, to 597,000 tons. At the same time, Russian exports to the United States are growing. Americans partially supply their own market with Russian products and sell their own fertilizers to Europe, thus offsetting the decline in Russian exports to the EU, Forbes explained.
How effective are Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes?
Ukrainian missiles and drones can certainly cause significant damage to fertilizer production facilities and disable them for long periods. This is evident in the strike on the Dorogobuzh plant in the Smolensk region—to date, it is likely the most successful attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a company in the industry.
The strike on Dorogobuzh took place on February 25 of this year, killing seven people and injuring 11. Two of the victims were rescue workers who were poisoned by ammonia, ASTRA reported. According to the Ukrainian OSINT project, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the plant with FP-1 drones. Specifically, ammonium nitrate production facilities and a railway terminal were damaged. "There was such a wave, such a roar, everything shook, and we really thought it was an earthquake. Then the windows literally blew in." "There's not just a fire at the site of the plant, but a huge bonfire," a Dorogobuzh resident said.
The plant has been shut down since then. The governor of the Smolensk region promised to restore ammonia production by May and nitrate by the end of June.
Dorogobuzh accounts for approximately 10% of Russian ammonium nitrate production. Russia's share of global ammonium nitrate exports is even greater than the industry average—up to 40%. Although Dorogobuzh is focused on the domestic market, on March 21, the government imposed a month-long ban on ammonium nitrate exports. No extension was announced. According to Kommersant, the value of monthly exports could have exceeded $100 million; in volume terms, shipments in the first quarter plummeted 40% year-on-year. The Smolensk region's budget will lose 500 million rubles just due to the loss of tax revenues from Dorogobuzh, the governor said.
In addition to Dorogobuzh, in recent months, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have targeted Togliattiazot, Kuibyshevazot, and Minudobreniya in the Voronezh region, Acron in Veliky Novgorod, Nevinnomyssk Azot in Stavropol Krai, Apatit in the Vologda region, and the Kirovo-Chepetsk Chemical Company in the Kirov region.
For Ukraine, the targeting of fertilizer production is not only a reduction in Russian export revenues. Ammonia, for example, is used, among other things, to produce gunpowder, explosives, and solid rocket fuel. Robert Brovdi, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Unmanned Systems Forces, reporting on the strike on a plant in the Vologda Region, emphasized that its products are used to produce TNT, RDX, and other explosives.
There is another way fertilizer producers are assisting the Russian military-industrial complex. Taking advantage of the fact that these enterprises are not subject to Western sanctions, military factories are ordering chemicals needed for explosives production through them, Bloomberg reported.
Experts are not yet concerned that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes will seriously impact the global fertilizer market. Therefore, they are more concerned about Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a third of all fertilizers transported by sea are shipped. Furthermore, up to 30% of the liquefied natural gas used in fertilizer production is shipped through Hormuz.
The disruption of fertilizer supplies and rising prices will impact agricultural producers worldwide—in Africa, Asia, and Brazil. Ultimately, all of this will lead to higher food prices; the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is already recording food inflation. The FAO doesn't expect a sharp rise in prices: recent good harvests in Asia and the United States, as well as large food reserves, are helping to alleviate the situation.
The Kiel Institute for International Economics warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause wheat prices to rise by 4.2%, and fruit and vegetable prices by 5.2%. Zambia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Pakistan will be hit hardest by rising food prices.
