According to the results of the four weeks ending April 13, oil companies' revenues from the sale of raw materials abroad fell to a minimum since July 2023, Bloomberg calculated based on Argus data and tanker shipping statistics.
Average volumes of Russian oil exports, according to the agency's calculations, fell to 3.13 million barrels per day - by 10%, or 320 thousand barrels per day compared to mid-March levels. And average income from exporting barrels abroad fell to $1.29 billion per week. Compared to the levels of a month ago, the oil industry's revenue has fallen by 10%, and compared to April 2024, by more than a third, or about $700 million per week.
A full-fledged collapse of oil revenues, according to Bloomberg data, took place in the second week of April, when Urals, the main brand of Russian oil companies, instantly fell in price to levels below $50 per barrel. The selling prices of Russian oil fell sharply in all shipping directions: by $9.1 per barrel in the Baltic Sea, by $9.4 in the Black Sea, by $9.7 in the Pacific Ocean ports.
This deprived the oil industry of $220 million in weekly revenues and promises new problems for the budget, which in March had already lost 17% of its oil and gas revenues compared to the amounts a year ago.
The situation for the treasury is aggravated by the strong ruble, which, according to Bloomberg, became the fastest-growing currency in the world in 2025. With the current exchange rate and current oil price, the budget may fall short of 3.1 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues out of the planned 10.8 trillion, estimates Alexey Tretyakov, CEO of Aricapital Management Company.
Non-oil and gas revenues, which could compensate for the collapse of raw material rent, are growing more slowly than planned, and by the end of the year they may also be 2 trillion rubles below the planned level, and this promises a budget deficit of 3% of GDP, or 6.5 trillion rubles, Tretyakov believes: “This will be significantly more than in the worst year in modern history, 2020 (4.1 trillion rubles).”
In such conditions, the devaluation of the ruble is "inevitable", the expert believes: the dollar exchange rate may rise to 110-120 rubles. Analysts at Renaissance Capital give a similar forecast: with oil at $50, the ruble will fall to 108 per dollar. Now the Russian currency is supported by expectations of geopolitical normalization, but the ruble has over-strengthened, analysts at Raiffeisenbank write. According to their forecast, the dollar exchange rate will rise to 95 rubles by the end of the year.
Average volumes of Russian oil exports, according to the agency's calculations, fell to 3.13 million barrels per day - by 10%, or 320 thousand barrels per day compared to mid-March levels. And average income from exporting barrels abroad fell to $1.29 billion per week. Compared to the levels of a month ago, the oil industry's revenue has fallen by 10%, and compared to April 2024, by more than a third, or about $700 million per week.
A full-fledged collapse of oil revenues, according to Bloomberg data, took place in the second week of April, when Urals, the main brand of Russian oil companies, instantly fell in price to levels below $50 per barrel. The selling prices of Russian oil fell sharply in all shipping directions: by $9.1 per barrel in the Baltic Sea, by $9.4 in the Black Sea, by $9.7 in the Pacific Ocean ports.
This deprived the oil industry of $220 million in weekly revenues and promises new problems for the budget, which in March had already lost 17% of its oil and gas revenues compared to the amounts a year ago.
The situation for the treasury is aggravated by the strong ruble, which, according to Bloomberg, became the fastest-growing currency in the world in 2025. With the current exchange rate and current oil price, the budget may fall short of 3.1 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues out of the planned 10.8 trillion, estimates Alexey Tretyakov, CEO of Aricapital Management Company.
Non-oil and gas revenues, which could compensate for the collapse of raw material rent, are growing more slowly than planned, and by the end of the year they may also be 2 trillion rubles below the planned level, and this promises a budget deficit of 3% of GDP, or 6.5 trillion rubles, Tretyakov believes: “This will be significantly more than in the worst year in modern history, 2020 (4.1 trillion rubles).”
In such conditions, the devaluation of the ruble is "inevitable", the expert believes: the dollar exchange rate may rise to 110-120 rubles. Analysts at Renaissance Capital give a similar forecast: with oil at $50, the ruble will fall to 108 per dollar. Now the Russian currency is supported by expectations of geopolitical normalization, but the ruble has over-strengthened, analysts at Raiffeisenbank write. According to their forecast, the dollar exchange rate will rise to 95 rubles by the end of the year.
