A special system that calculates macro-financial risks shows that Russia has high risks of a systemic banking crisis and a crisis of "bad debts". This is written by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), headed by Dmitry Belousov, in the report "What do the leading indicators of systemic financial and macroeconomic risks show?".
Such a crisis can have three variants:
an increase in the share of problem assets in the total assets of the banking system above 10%;
withdrawal of a significant share of savings from accounts and deposits by clients and depositors and forced "freezing" of this money;
forced reorganization or nationalization of more than 10% of banks or large-scale (more than 2% of GDP) one-time recapitalization of banks by the state and/or companies in order to prevent the two previous scenarios.
CMASF has been predicting a high probability of a banking crisis by November 2024 for several months in a row. The problem is that all this time the probability has not decreased, but, on the contrary, has been growing. "The factor of bank credit expansion (growth of the ratio of total loans to the population and enterprises to GDP) has been acting towards an increase in the probability of a systemic banking crisis for four months in a row," the experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) wrote.
In addition, the "some increase in the real effective exchange rate of the ruble" that occurred in June has had an effect towards worsening the situation. "This limits the price competitiveness of domestic goods, which in the long term may lead to a decrease in the solvency of manufacturing companies," the analysts explained.
Such a crisis can have three variants:
an increase in the share of problem assets in the total assets of the banking system above 10%;
withdrawal of a significant share of savings from accounts and deposits by clients and depositors and forced "freezing" of this money;
forced reorganization or nationalization of more than 10% of banks or large-scale (more than 2% of GDP) one-time recapitalization of banks by the state and/or companies in order to prevent the two previous scenarios.
CMASF has been predicting a high probability of a banking crisis by November 2024 for several months in a row. The problem is that all this time the probability has not decreased, but, on the contrary, has been growing. "The factor of bank credit expansion (growth of the ratio of total loans to the population and enterprises to GDP) has been acting towards an increase in the probability of a systemic banking crisis for four months in a row," the experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) wrote.
In addition, the "some increase in the real effective exchange rate of the ruble" that occurred in June has had an effect towards worsening the situation. "This limits the price competitiveness of domestic goods, which in the long term may lead to a decrease in the solvency of manufacturing companies," the analysts explained.
