The list of privileges on the energy market became known, which the group of En + Oleg Deripaska, who got under US sanctions, asked the government. In case of their adoption, the total benefits of En +, Rusal and Eurosibenergo can amount to tens of billions of rubles a year. Other market participants will suffer - energy prices in Siberia can grow substantially. It is also about increasing the population's payments. But officials were cautious about these ideas, and, according to experts, the benefits will not solve the key problem of reducing aluminum exports of "Rusal".
"Kommersant" got acquainted with the proposals for support that En + (unites the industrial assets of Oleg Deripaska, including Eurosibenergo and 48.1% of Rusal, all persons under US sanctions since April 6) sent to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak on May 15 . Already on May 21, according to Kommersant's information, the official instructed the departments to form a position. In his office confirmed the discussion of "measures to support sanctions companies," in En + declined to comment.
The main ideas of En + concern the benefits in the energy market. The largest savings of RUB 13-18 billion, according to the group, will be the disposal of Rusal from payments under power supply contracts (DPM, guarantee the return of investment in generation due to higher market payments). Rusal is Russia's largest consumer: 62 billion kWh in 2016 (6.1% of consumption in Russia and 30% in Siberia). The company has already asked former vice-premier Arkady Dvorkovich about a vacation for the DPM for five years, now the dates are not specified, but, according to Rusal, this will lead to an increase in energy prices in Siberia by 12%. Also, En + asks to release "Rusal" from the premium to energy prices to reduce tariffs in the Far East, this will save 1.9-3 billion rubles. per year and will increase prices in Siberia by 1-2%. Benefit will give and the transition of "Rusal" to free bilateral agreements (SAD) with RusHydro and Rosenergoatom (REA) at a discount to the market price of 0.5 rubles. for kWh (0.5-0.7 billion rubles a year and 4.8-8.6 billion rubles a year, respectively).
In the REA reported that before the end of the year will end three-year SDA, the negotiations on the extension did not begin. In "RusHydro" they said that they did not conclude a traffic police, there are no negotiations.
For EnergoSibEnergo in Siberia, En + requests a reduction in the volume of regulated contracts (RD, purchases for the public) from 15% to 5% for electricity and from 21% to 5% for capacity. The measure is proposed only for the second half of the year, together with the SDA. This will give Eurosibenergo up to 4.2 billion rubles, RusHydro - 1.9 billion rubles, but other generation of Siberia will lose 1.3 billion rubles.
To reduce cross-subsidization in the Irkutsk region, En + wants to raise the tariffs of networks for the population. Here the lowest energy tariffs in Russia, follows from the company's explanations: 1.01 rub. for 1 kW • h at an average of 4.3 rubles. for 1 kW • h. The effect of En + was estimated at 3 billion rubles. a year for fraternal and Irkutsk factories "Rusal". Among the proposals to reduce the "crossroads" - the transfer of some of the load of "Rusal" to all consumers of the Federal Grid Company (FGC) and an increase in transmission tariffs for other consumers. FMS did not see the letter, but noted that the company's presence in the region is insignificant.
En + proposed to increase the maximum level of payments for housing and communal services in the region, raising the tariff for heat and hot water by 1% (effect - 115 million rubles per year for Irkutskenergo, the company's costs not included in the tariffs - 5.4 billion rubles .). For Irkutskenergo, it is proposed to rebuild the base of 2010 by the tariffs for capacity on the RD (falling revenues are estimated at 500 million rubles per year), and to zero the water use rates for a period of five years. According to the company, the water payment of Eurosibenergo in 2018 is 1.5 billion rubles., In a year it grows by 15%.
In addition, En + estimated the impact of sanctions on Rusal: aluminum output in 2018 could be reduced by 30% from the business plan in the baseline scenario and by 50-70% in the "most negative" (in 2017, 3.7 million tons were produced ), with the latter option fraught with the closure of plants. Due to the fall in exports, Rusal predicts a "significant reduction in revenue," an increase in the share of fixed costs and raw material prices will raise the cost by 20-25%, and a deficit of funds for the year is expected at $ 1.5 billion.
Rusal exports three quarters of its volumes, and the shortage of funds is fraught with problems with creditors: net debt as of March 31 was $ 7.87 billion, in 2018-2021 it is necessary to pay back 3.4 billion. VTB Chairman Andrei Kostin said that the bank will not give " Rusal "of new loans, but is ready to defer payments. The head of Sberbank German Gref said: "There are two ways - either we will get a loan back, or we will work with a mortgage (25% stake in Norilsk Nickel." - "Kommersant"). In "Rusal" they refused to comment, but the source of Kommersant, who is familiar with the proposals, stresses that negative consequences can come only if "sanctions are not lifted after October" (the US permitted transactions with Rusal until October 23). Oleg Deripaska has already agreed to reduce the stake in En + below 50% from 66%. In companies it is planned to introduce independent members to the boards of directors, Mr. Deripaska left them.
The Ministry of Energy "Kommersant" was not answered, the FAS declined to comment. The Ministry of Economy was supported only by the reduction of the "crossroads" in the Irkutsk region. Exemption from payment on DPM and allowances for the Far East "distorts the principles of the wholesale market", creating discriminatory conditions, the ministry believes. Rusal, according to the Ministry of Economy, should discuss with energy specialists, but there are also risks of "negative financial consequences" for power engineers due to a decrease in consumption of "Rusal". In the Ministry of Housing Policy, Energy and Transport of the Irkutsk region, initiatives are known, negotiations are under way, but there are no decisions so far.
Director of the Energy Systems Institute of the Irkutsk Scientific Center of the SB RAS Valery Stennikov believes that the result of the measures will be the growth of tariffs for the population and small businesses, which will exacerbate the problem of non-payments, and for low-income people, budget subsidies will be needed. With the complete cancellation of the "crossroads" tariffs for the population can grow threefold, he believes. The energy sector may suffer: according to Natalia Porokhova of ACRA, if the plants of RusAl are shut down, TPPs may close and only the cheap HPP energy will remain in the market, but this will not solve the problem of aluminum sales. As the expert adds, metal prices have increased significantly, so there is no need for subsidies through the energy market.
"Kommersant" got acquainted with the proposals for support that En + (unites the industrial assets of Oleg Deripaska, including Eurosibenergo and 48.1% of Rusal, all persons under US sanctions since April 6) sent to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak on May 15 . Already on May 21, according to Kommersant's information, the official instructed the departments to form a position. In his office confirmed the discussion of "measures to support sanctions companies," in En + declined to comment.
The main ideas of En + concern the benefits in the energy market. The largest savings of RUB 13-18 billion, according to the group, will be the disposal of Rusal from payments under power supply contracts (DPM, guarantee the return of investment in generation due to higher market payments). Rusal is Russia's largest consumer: 62 billion kWh in 2016 (6.1% of consumption in Russia and 30% in Siberia). The company has already asked former vice-premier Arkady Dvorkovich about a vacation for the DPM for five years, now the dates are not specified, but, according to Rusal, this will lead to an increase in energy prices in Siberia by 12%. Also, En + asks to release "Rusal" from the premium to energy prices to reduce tariffs in the Far East, this will save 1.9-3 billion rubles. per year and will increase prices in Siberia by 1-2%. Benefit will give and the transition of "Rusal" to free bilateral agreements (SAD) with RusHydro and Rosenergoatom (REA) at a discount to the market price of 0.5 rubles. for kWh (0.5-0.7 billion rubles a year and 4.8-8.6 billion rubles a year, respectively).
In the REA reported that before the end of the year will end three-year SDA, the negotiations on the extension did not begin. In "RusHydro" they said that they did not conclude a traffic police, there are no negotiations.
For EnergoSibEnergo in Siberia, En + requests a reduction in the volume of regulated contracts (RD, purchases for the public) from 15% to 5% for electricity and from 21% to 5% for capacity. The measure is proposed only for the second half of the year, together with the SDA. This will give Eurosibenergo up to 4.2 billion rubles, RusHydro - 1.9 billion rubles, but other generation of Siberia will lose 1.3 billion rubles.
To reduce cross-subsidization in the Irkutsk region, En + wants to raise the tariffs of networks for the population. Here the lowest energy tariffs in Russia, follows from the company's explanations: 1.01 rub. for 1 kW • h at an average of 4.3 rubles. for 1 kW • h. The effect of En + was estimated at 3 billion rubles. a year for fraternal and Irkutsk factories "Rusal". Among the proposals to reduce the "crossroads" - the transfer of some of the load of "Rusal" to all consumers of the Federal Grid Company (FGC) and an increase in transmission tariffs for other consumers. FMS did not see the letter, but noted that the company's presence in the region is insignificant.
En + proposed to increase the maximum level of payments for housing and communal services in the region, raising the tariff for heat and hot water by 1% (effect - 115 million rubles per year for Irkutskenergo, the company's costs not included in the tariffs - 5.4 billion rubles .). For Irkutskenergo, it is proposed to rebuild the base of 2010 by the tariffs for capacity on the RD (falling revenues are estimated at 500 million rubles per year), and to zero the water use rates for a period of five years. According to the company, the water payment of Eurosibenergo in 2018 is 1.5 billion rubles., In a year it grows by 15%.
In addition, En + estimated the impact of sanctions on Rusal: aluminum output in 2018 could be reduced by 30% from the business plan in the baseline scenario and by 50-70% in the "most negative" (in 2017, 3.7 million tons were produced ), with the latter option fraught with the closure of plants. Due to the fall in exports, Rusal predicts a "significant reduction in revenue," an increase in the share of fixed costs and raw material prices will raise the cost by 20-25%, and a deficit of funds for the year is expected at $ 1.5 billion.
Rusal exports three quarters of its volumes, and the shortage of funds is fraught with problems with creditors: net debt as of March 31 was $ 7.87 billion, in 2018-2021 it is necessary to pay back 3.4 billion. VTB Chairman Andrei Kostin said that the bank will not give " Rusal "of new loans, but is ready to defer payments. The head of Sberbank German Gref said: "There are two ways - either we will get a loan back, or we will work with a mortgage (25% stake in Norilsk Nickel." - "Kommersant"). In "Rusal" they refused to comment, but the source of Kommersant, who is familiar with the proposals, stresses that negative consequences can come only if "sanctions are not lifted after October" (the US permitted transactions with Rusal until October 23). Oleg Deripaska has already agreed to reduce the stake in En + below 50% from 66%. In companies it is planned to introduce independent members to the boards of directors, Mr. Deripaska left them.
The Ministry of Energy "Kommersant" was not answered, the FAS declined to comment. The Ministry of Economy was supported only by the reduction of the "crossroads" in the Irkutsk region. Exemption from payment on DPM and allowances for the Far East "distorts the principles of the wholesale market", creating discriminatory conditions, the ministry believes. Rusal, according to the Ministry of Economy, should discuss with energy specialists, but there are also risks of "negative financial consequences" for power engineers due to a decrease in consumption of "Rusal". In the Ministry of Housing Policy, Energy and Transport of the Irkutsk region, initiatives are known, negotiations are under way, but there are no decisions so far.
Director of the Energy Systems Institute of the Irkutsk Scientific Center of the SB RAS Valery Stennikov believes that the result of the measures will be the growth of tariffs for the population and small businesses, which will exacerbate the problem of non-payments, and for low-income people, budget subsidies will be needed. With the complete cancellation of the "crossroads" tariffs for the population can grow threefold, he believes. The energy sector may suffer: according to Natalia Porokhova of ACRA, if the plants of RusAl are shut down, TPPs may close and only the cheap HPP energy will remain in the market, but this will not solve the problem of aluminum sales. As the expert adds, metal prices have increased significantly, so there is no need for subsidies through the energy market.
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