Today, Russia has only one operating oil pipeline in the western direction — Druzhba. Of its two branches, the northern one (to Poland and Germany) has been stopped due to EU sanctions, and Kazakh oil is currently being transported to Europe via this section. The southern branch goes through Ukraine to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Transit to these countries does not contradict the EU sanctions regime, which allows temporary deliveries to landlocked countries.
In the eastern direction, Russian oil goes via the East Siberia — Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline to the port of Kozmino with a branch from the Russian city of Skovorodino in the Amur Region to the Chinese border city of Mohe. The remaining oil pipelines go to ports on the Baltic and Black Seas and to the Arctic sea terminals of Vorota Arktiki and Varandey.
After the sabotage that led to the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines laid through the Baltic Sea and the shutdown of the transit gas pipeline through Ukraine, there are only two routes left for Russian gas supplies to Europe - the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream pipelines through the Black Sea.
In the eastern direction, the Power of Siberia 1 export gas pipeline to China operates, and the Power of Siberia 2 project, also directed to China, has been in the approval stage for many years. Russian gas is also delivered to China in transit through Central Asia, and two countries in the region, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, receive it through the Central Asia - Center pipeline.
There are projects to expand existing pipelines and build new ones, however, according to analysts, they are unlikely to be implemented in the near future, and in the foreseeable future, the emphasis on delivering oil and gas to foreign consumers will be on their transportation by sea. Although the country will face difficulties due to the “crusade” declared by the US and its allies against Russian energy resources.
Oil Pipes
There are not many pipeline export routes left, notes Nikita Blokhin, a senior analyst at Alfa Bank. “Russian oil exports in 2024, according to our estimates, amounted to just over 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 232 million tons,” he says. “Of these, almost 80% were by sea transport and the remaining 20% by pipeline.” According to him, about 3.5 million bpd, or just over 180 million tons, are supplied by sea, while less than a quarter of all exports, about 1 million bpd, or about 50 million tons, are by pipeline. Almost half of sea exports are the main Russian grade Urals, shipped from Black Sea and Baltic ports.
If the total export of Russian oil by pipeline in 2022 was 80 million tons, then in 2024 it decreased by a third due to deliveries to Europe and, apparently, amounted to about 53 million tons, Alexey Gromov, Chief Director for Energy at the Research Center “Institute of Energy and Finance” (IEF), told Forbes. According to his estimates, deliveries to Europe decreased from 39 million tons in 2022 to 13 million tons in 2024. “In 2022, 40 million tons were sent to China,” he says. “Of these, 30 million tons were via ESPO, the remaining 10 million tons are transported in transit through Kazakhstan.” Thus, in 2022, deliveries to China accounted for half of Russian pipeline oil exports, and in 2024, the same 40 million tons account for approximately 75%, and the rest comes from the Druzhba oil pipeline system, or rather, its southern branch - 13 million tons of oil, which are received by Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, he notes.
Gromov expects that in 2025, deliveries to the eastern direction - 40 million tons - will remain unchanged. "But the reductions along Druzhba will continue," he believes. "Deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia will continue, but will stop to the Czech Republic, which is ready to switch to receiving oil from the Alpine oil pipeline, and about 3 million tons will leave from the western direction, and the total volume of exports via the pipeline will be about 50 million tons."
Oil supplies to Europe will continue in 2025, agrees Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund. “And what will happen in a couple of years depends on the general context of political relations between Russia and the West,” he sums up.
Elusive tankers
The situation with tankers is more difficult to predict, believes Gromov from the IEF. “The sanctions attack on Russian tankers was large-scale,” he says. “As a result, a third of the Russian ‘shadow fleet’, as they say now, left the chat.”
In addition, Gromov adds, the US gave a reprieve, and tankers loaded before January 10 were given the opportunity to unload in the ports of India and China until March. Thus, tankers of the “shadow fleet” are actively unloading in foreign ports in order to make it before the restrictive measures come into force. "Accordingly, both India and China will receive their oil from Russia, including that loaded onto tankers included in the sanctions list," Gromov believes. In the future, he assumes, some of the oil will be redirected to vessels not included in the sanctions; in addition, Russia will be forced to provide buyers with a significant discount in order to maintain export volumes. Gromov believes that by the end of 2025, Russian seaborne oil exports are unlikely to become significantly smaller. "The reduction may be insignificant, within 10% of last year's cargo volumes," he says. "We will have to pay for this with additional price discounts."
Gas pipelines on the rise
Gromov from the IEF estimates the total export of Russian gas (pipeline and LNG) in 2024 at approximately 160-161 billion cubic meters (+14% per year), while pipeline gas supplies in 2024 increased by 16-17% compared to 2023, to 116 billion cubic meters.
“The growth in supplies not only to China, but also to European countries is understandable: the Europeans stocked up on our gas to the maximum in anticipation of the end of Ukrainian gas transit,” he clarifies. According to Gromov, gas supplies to China, due to the early achievement of the design capacity of the Power of Siberia, increased to 31 billion cubic meters (in 2023 - 23 billion cubic meters), and supplies to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan - from 32 to 36 billion cubic meters. m. Deliveries to Turkey have decreased slightly - from 21 to 20 billion cubic meters, and to the EU they have grown significantly - from 24 billion cubic meters to 29 billion cubic meters," Gromov calculated. At the same time, according to him, transit through Ukraine has increased by 2-3 billion cubic meters over the year - to 15-16 billion cubic meters.
In 2025, according to Gromov, Russia will be able to fully compensate for the loss of Ukrainian transit. Russian pipeline gas supplies to China, Gromov believes, should add 7 billion cubic meters and reach the planned level of 38 billion cubic meters per year. He also expects an increase in supplies to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, approximately 3 billion cubic meters for each of the countries.
"Thus, in the event of a final and irrevocable end to the story with Ukrainian transit, out of the 15 billion cubic meters that it provided in 2024, approximately 13 billion cubic meters will be delivered to China. m we will compensate for by increasing supplies to neighboring countries and China, and we may have another couple of billion cubic meters due to increased supplies to Hungary and Slovakia,” says Gromov.
The main area of uncertainty in 2025, Gromov believes, remains Turkey, which has purchased from 16 to 26 billion cubic meters of gas in the past few years.
According to Gromov, the situation with Russian LNG is also not simple due to blocking US sanctions. “In 2024, we estimated Russian LNG exports at 33 million tons compared to 31 million tons in 2023,” he calculated. According to him, Russia’s main task in 2025 will be to maintain export volumes at the same level.
“But if the Europeans decide to impose an embargo on Russian LNG supplies, then, of course, we should expect a drop in exports,” he complains. — And it could be significant, since about two-thirds of Russian LNG exports were sent to Europe."
Alfa Bank's Blokhin does not expect Russia's oil and gas export capacity to expand in the short term. "There are a number of projects, such as the idea of supplying gas to Iran, but these are plans for the long term," says Blokhin.
Even with a revised route, Power of Siberia 2 could potentially only be implemented after 2027-2028, he adds.
The Power of Siberia 2 project is stuck in negotiations, confirms Mitrakhovich from the Financial University. "China believes that it already has enough gas from other sources," he says. "It would be nice to have an extra pipeline, but China believes that everything is fine, so negotiations on Power of Siberia 2 have stalled."
We should not forget about the Far Eastern route, which involves the supply of gas to China from offshore fields on Sakhalin, Blokhin adds. However, despite the fact that agreements for the supply of gas were signed in early 2022, in reality this gas will not be able to go to China before 2027, he adds.
In the eastern direction, Russian oil goes via the East Siberia — Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline to the port of Kozmino with a branch from the Russian city of Skovorodino in the Amur Region to the Chinese border city of Mohe. The remaining oil pipelines go to ports on the Baltic and Black Seas and to the Arctic sea terminals of Vorota Arktiki and Varandey.
After the sabotage that led to the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines laid through the Baltic Sea and the shutdown of the transit gas pipeline through Ukraine, there are only two routes left for Russian gas supplies to Europe - the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream pipelines through the Black Sea.
In the eastern direction, the Power of Siberia 1 export gas pipeline to China operates, and the Power of Siberia 2 project, also directed to China, has been in the approval stage for many years. Russian gas is also delivered to China in transit through Central Asia, and two countries in the region, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, receive it through the Central Asia - Center pipeline.
There are projects to expand existing pipelines and build new ones, however, according to analysts, they are unlikely to be implemented in the near future, and in the foreseeable future, the emphasis on delivering oil and gas to foreign consumers will be on their transportation by sea. Although the country will face difficulties due to the “crusade” declared by the US and its allies against Russian energy resources.
Oil Pipes
There are not many pipeline export routes left, notes Nikita Blokhin, a senior analyst at Alfa Bank. “Russian oil exports in 2024, according to our estimates, amounted to just over 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 232 million tons,” he says. “Of these, almost 80% were by sea transport and the remaining 20% by pipeline.” According to him, about 3.5 million bpd, or just over 180 million tons, are supplied by sea, while less than a quarter of all exports, about 1 million bpd, or about 50 million tons, are by pipeline. Almost half of sea exports are the main Russian grade Urals, shipped from Black Sea and Baltic ports.
If the total export of Russian oil by pipeline in 2022 was 80 million tons, then in 2024 it decreased by a third due to deliveries to Europe and, apparently, amounted to about 53 million tons, Alexey Gromov, Chief Director for Energy at the Research Center “Institute of Energy and Finance” (IEF), told Forbes. According to his estimates, deliveries to Europe decreased from 39 million tons in 2022 to 13 million tons in 2024. “In 2022, 40 million tons were sent to China,” he says. “Of these, 30 million tons were via ESPO, the remaining 10 million tons are transported in transit through Kazakhstan.” Thus, in 2022, deliveries to China accounted for half of Russian pipeline oil exports, and in 2024, the same 40 million tons account for approximately 75%, and the rest comes from the Druzhba oil pipeline system, or rather, its southern branch - 13 million tons of oil, which are received by Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, he notes.
Gromov expects that in 2025, deliveries to the eastern direction - 40 million tons - will remain unchanged. "But the reductions along Druzhba will continue," he believes. "Deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia will continue, but will stop to the Czech Republic, which is ready to switch to receiving oil from the Alpine oil pipeline, and about 3 million tons will leave from the western direction, and the total volume of exports via the pipeline will be about 50 million tons."
Oil supplies to Europe will continue in 2025, agrees Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund. “And what will happen in a couple of years depends on the general context of political relations between Russia and the West,” he sums up.
Elusive tankers
The situation with tankers is more difficult to predict, believes Gromov from the IEF. “The sanctions attack on Russian tankers was large-scale,” he says. “As a result, a third of the Russian ‘shadow fleet’, as they say now, left the chat.”
In addition, Gromov adds, the US gave a reprieve, and tankers loaded before January 10 were given the opportunity to unload in the ports of India and China until March. Thus, tankers of the “shadow fleet” are actively unloading in foreign ports in order to make it before the restrictive measures come into force. "Accordingly, both India and China will receive their oil from Russia, including that loaded onto tankers included in the sanctions list," Gromov believes. In the future, he assumes, some of the oil will be redirected to vessels not included in the sanctions; in addition, Russia will be forced to provide buyers with a significant discount in order to maintain export volumes. Gromov believes that by the end of 2025, Russian seaborne oil exports are unlikely to become significantly smaller. "The reduction may be insignificant, within 10% of last year's cargo volumes," he says. "We will have to pay for this with additional price discounts."
Gas pipelines on the rise
Gromov from the IEF estimates the total export of Russian gas (pipeline and LNG) in 2024 at approximately 160-161 billion cubic meters (+14% per year), while pipeline gas supplies in 2024 increased by 16-17% compared to 2023, to 116 billion cubic meters.
“The growth in supplies not only to China, but also to European countries is understandable: the Europeans stocked up on our gas to the maximum in anticipation of the end of Ukrainian gas transit,” he clarifies. According to Gromov, gas supplies to China, due to the early achievement of the design capacity of the Power of Siberia, increased to 31 billion cubic meters (in 2023 - 23 billion cubic meters), and supplies to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan - from 32 to 36 billion cubic meters. m. Deliveries to Turkey have decreased slightly - from 21 to 20 billion cubic meters, and to the EU they have grown significantly - from 24 billion cubic meters to 29 billion cubic meters," Gromov calculated. At the same time, according to him, transit through Ukraine has increased by 2-3 billion cubic meters over the year - to 15-16 billion cubic meters.
In 2025, according to Gromov, Russia will be able to fully compensate for the loss of Ukrainian transit. Russian pipeline gas supplies to China, Gromov believes, should add 7 billion cubic meters and reach the planned level of 38 billion cubic meters per year. He also expects an increase in supplies to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, approximately 3 billion cubic meters for each of the countries.
"Thus, in the event of a final and irrevocable end to the story with Ukrainian transit, out of the 15 billion cubic meters that it provided in 2024, approximately 13 billion cubic meters will be delivered to China. m we will compensate for by increasing supplies to neighboring countries and China, and we may have another couple of billion cubic meters due to increased supplies to Hungary and Slovakia,” says Gromov.
The main area of uncertainty in 2025, Gromov believes, remains Turkey, which has purchased from 16 to 26 billion cubic meters of gas in the past few years.
According to Gromov, the situation with Russian LNG is also not simple due to blocking US sanctions. “In 2024, we estimated Russian LNG exports at 33 million tons compared to 31 million tons in 2023,” he calculated. According to him, Russia’s main task in 2025 will be to maintain export volumes at the same level.
“But if the Europeans decide to impose an embargo on Russian LNG supplies, then, of course, we should expect a drop in exports,” he complains. — And it could be significant, since about two-thirds of Russian LNG exports were sent to Europe."
Alfa Bank's Blokhin does not expect Russia's oil and gas export capacity to expand in the short term. "There are a number of projects, such as the idea of supplying gas to Iran, but these are plans for the long term," says Blokhin.
Even with a revised route, Power of Siberia 2 could potentially only be implemented after 2027-2028, he adds.
The Power of Siberia 2 project is stuck in negotiations, confirms Mitrakhovich from the Financial University. "China believes that it already has enough gas from other sources," he says. "It would be nice to have an extra pipeline, but China believes that everything is fine, so negotiations on Power of Siberia 2 have stalled."
We should not forget about the Far Eastern route, which involves the supply of gas to China from offshore fields on Sakhalin, Blokhin adds. However, despite the fact that agreements for the supply of gas were signed in early 2022, in reality this gas will not be able to go to China before 2027, he adds.
